Russia Assists China’s Taiwan Attack Plans: RUSI Report Unveils Military Collaboration

Researchers from RUSI shared some of these documents with The Associated Press, noting their authenticity seems credible, although there could be missing or modified sections. The authenticity of these documents has yet to be independently confirmed by AP.

The assortment of Russian documents, some finalized and others in draft form, details interactions between Chinese and Russian delegations, including visits to Moscow, and outlines the timelines for payments and deliveries. Notably mentioned are high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles. Indications are that Russia has commenced production on these items, but there is no direct evidence of payment or receipt of these items by Beijing.

Potential Military Use against Taiwan

While the documents do not explicitly mention Taiwan, the analysis suggests that the deal would significantly enhance China’s capabilities in advanced parachuting, potentially expediting their plans. Whether China has firmly decided to pursue an invasion remains uncertain, but the availability of Russian military gear and localized training would undoubtedly enhance their preparedness, according to analyst Danylyuk.

Danylyuk noted the relative infancy of China’s airborne training programs, suggesting that Russian assistance could accelerate its development by approximately a decade or more.

Neither the Kremlin nor the defense or foreign ministries of China and Taiwan responded immediately to inquiries for comments.

Danylyuk and co-analyst Jack Watling emphasized the training and command control expertise that China stands to gain from Russia’s battle-hardened experience, contrasting with China’s lack of combat familiarity.

The analysts believe Russia’s primary goal is to bolster its role as a military supplier to China to support its own initiatives, such as the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, Danylyuk proposed that Moscow might be attempting to entangle Beijing in a conflict with Washington over Taiwan, diverting attention from Russia’s activities in Ukraine.

Despite Beijing’s more advanced military capability compared to Moscow, the analysis highlights gaps that Russia can fill, leveraging its extensive experience with airborne forces.

Beijing-based military commentator Song Zhongping acknowledged China’s superior equipment but noted the valuable combat experience that Russia brings to the table.

Wen-Ti Sung, a specialist on China and Taiwan from the Atlantic Council, mentioned that while parachuting forces would aid logistics in any invasion scenario, it is unlikely to be the primary strategy. He suggested that China’s strategy involves a long-term view, aiming to not only use but also reverse-engineer Russian technology for broader applications in modern warfare, particularly in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

Agreement on Training and Equipment Provision

A document dated September 2024 outlines an initial agreement from 2021 detailing payment schedules and delivery phases. According to this document, the first two stages—analysis of technical specifications, software adjustments, and equipment production—have been completed.

Russia has also committed to providing comprehensive training in China and furnishing a full suite of equipment for an airborne battalion. This includes special forces infiltration capabilities, with sales encompassing 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns, and 11 airborne armored personnel carriers, along with command and observation vehicles. The total contract is valued at over $210 million.

The agreement stipulates that all vehicles be equipped with Chinese communication systems and be compatible with Chinese ammunition, as per Beijing’s requirements.

High-Altitude Parachute Systems Sought by Beijing

Russia has agreed to sell parachute systems to China designed for dropping payloads of up to 190 kilograms (419 pounds) from high altitudes, according to the RUSI analysis. The documents include minutes from a meeting on March 8, 2024, in Moscow, where Russia committed to delivering details by the end of 2024 on how the system, named Dalnolyot, performed in temperatures as low as –60 degrees Celsius (–76 Fahrenheit).

Beijing has requested tests for parachute drops from altitudes of 8,000 meters (26,250 feet). At such heights, Chinese forces could potentially glide for up to 80 kilometers (50 miles), enabling “Chinese special forces groups to infiltrate other countries undetected,” per the RUSI report.

Danylyuk suggested that the Dalnolyot system could facilitate a covert “stage zero” landing in Taiwan, where Beijing might secretly deploy equipment and special forces from aircraft outside Taiwanese airspace.

Challenges for Russia’s Parachute Troops in Ukraine

Despite its extensive history with parachute troops, Russia faced significant challenges deploying them effectively in Ukraine. In February 2022, shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin commanded a full-scale invasion, special forces attempted to secure the Hostomel airfield near Kyiv.

Western officials and military analysts believe these failures contributed to transforming what was anticipated as a swift victory into a prolonged conflict, now in its third year. In response, Moscow has resorted to using Soviet-era stockpiles to replenish battlefield weaponry, simultaneously boosting its arms production, similar to Ukraine.

However, these setbacks have not deterred Moscow from continuing its sales of military equipment to China, Danylyuk stated. He noted that the airborne equipment detailed in the documents was crucial only for the initial stages of an invasion. Moscow does not require such equipment for its operations in Ukraine, he added.

Learning from Russian Military Setbacks

The analysts suggested that for China, the operational challenge in Taiwan would be to accomplish what Russia could not: to effectively suppress Taiwan’s air defenses and deploy enough troops and equipment to build a force capable of overcoming the Taiwanese military before it could fully mobilize.

The report proposes that China could achieve this by air-dropping armored vehicles onto golf courses near Taiwanese ports and airfields, which would pave the way for air troops to secure a foothold for landing forces.

Associated Press journalists Dake Kang in Beijing and David Rising in Bangkok contributed to this report.