MILAN — As Ukraine contemplates a peace agreement from the U.S. that seems to disadvantage Kyiv, there is growing concern that Russia might soon pose a new challenge to NATO once the current hostilities cease, according to specialists at a recent Baltic security forum.
At last week’s Defending the Baltics 2025 conference, George Barros, a leading analyst on Russia and geospatial intelligence at the Institute for the Study of War, expressed a stark warning during a discussion panel. “The choice to engage in warfare may not be yours when it comes to the Russians, as they are actively gearing up for conflict against you,” Barros pointed out. He highlighted Russia’s ongoing efforts to bolster its economy and military strategies in anticipation of future conflicts.
Barros suggested that NATO might only have a year to ready itself for potential new aggressions once the conflict in Ukraine concludes. “The preparation time we have is significantly shorter than some might believe,” he cautioned.
Throughout the conference, which was held in Vilnius, Lithuania on November 17-18, a recurring theme among the participants was the nature of potential future Russian hostilities. It was widely agreed that any new aggression would likely differ from the direct military assault seen in Ukraine in 2022. Experts anticipate a more hybrid approach, potentially involving cyber warfare, sabotage, misinformation efforts, and destabilizing actions within NATO member states.
Moreover, Western intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned that Russia is also enhancing its conventional military capabilities. This development could enable Russia to pose a significant threat to the NATO alliance as the decade progresses.
In related news, Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian open-source intelligence group, disclosed last month that internal documents from Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod revealed plans to increase production of T-90 battle tanks by 80% by 2028.
Following this revelation, an analysis by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War suggested that these production targets are indicative of Russia’s intentions to rearm significantly and maintain a long-term threat to NATO beyond the Ukrainian conflict.
Sandis Šraders, the director for defense technology at Riga Technical University and an expert on autocratic regimes, shared a critical insight with attendees in Vilnius. He emphasized the danger of underestimating the speed at which Russia could rearm: “If you set a deadline, they will achieve it beforehand,” Šraders remarked. “I would not wait for an adversary to be fully prepared before they decide to strike.”
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Jamal Peterson reports on defense, aerospace, and tech policy. With a military background and a strategic mind, he dissects complex subjects with clarity, offering readers sharp, reliable insights.
