US Air Force Targets Early 2030s for Launch of Revamped Sentinel Nuclear Missile

The U.S. Air Force announced on Tuesday that it anticipates its advanced LGM-35A Sentinel nuclear missile will be operationally ready by the early 2030s, following an overhaul of its acquisition strategy, which is expected to conclude later this year.

Produced by Northrop Grumman, the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile is designed to succeed the Minuteman III missiles, which were initially deployed over fifty years ago during the Cold War and have since surpassed their operational lifespan.

However, the estimated costs for the Sentinel have significantly exceeded the initial projection of approximately $77.7 billion, primarily due to the increased expenses involved in building an extensive array of missile silos and control centers across the vast expanse of the Great Plains.

The costs associated with the Sentinel program soared to an estimated $160 billion, more than double the original forecast, prompting the Pentagon in January 2024 to declare a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach, initiating a thorough review of the program.

Initially, the Sentinel program was expected to achieve initial operational capability by 2029, but this timeline was first pushed to 2030 and now appears to be further delayed.

In July 2024, despite the setbacks, the Pentagon deemed the replacement of the LGM-30G Minuteman III as too vital to national security to be cancelled. Consequently, while continuing with the Sentinel, the Pentagon instructed the Air Force to restructure the program to manage its escalating costs.

Additionally, the Milestone B approval for the Sentinel program, initially granted in September 2020 to advance to the engineering and manufacturing development phase, was revoked by the Pentagon at that time.

The Air Force revealed on Tuesday that it anticipates completing the restructuring of the Sentinel program by the end of 2026, which will include a new decision on Milestone B. The service has capitalized on “considerable progress” made in the past 12-18 months and is implementing a “transformed acquisition strategy” to expedite the process.

“Modernizing our nuclear deterrent is a critical priority!” exclaimed Air Force Secretary Troy Meink in a statement on X. “The Sentinel program is following a data-driven route to deliver this capability, replacing a system from the 1970s and ensuring ‘Peace through Strength’ for the coming decades.”

Last August, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth established a new position known as the direct reporting portfolio manager (DRPM) for overseeing critical major weapon systems, including the Sentinel and Minuteman III, the F-47 sixth-generation fighter, and the B-21 Raider stealth bomber.

This DRPM official, Gen. Dale White, is tasked with cutting through bureaucratic delays and making swift decisions to deliver significant capabilities on a large scale, according to the Air Force.

“The DRPM has full authority to make decisions, informed by integrated inputs across the enterprise and aligned with mission priorities set by the Secretary of War and the Secretary for the Air Force,” stated White. “This setup allows us to resolve tradeoffs quickly and proceed with the urgency needed to provide credible deterrence while maintaining the discipline required by this mission.”

After assuming the new DRPM role, White and the Sentinel team carried out a comprehensive review of the program and determined it was on course to complete its restructuring phase this year and to achieve initial capability in the early 2030s.

While a new cost estimate for the Sentinel has not been immediately disclosed, a U.S. official informed Defense News that the Milestone B process usually involves an independent cost evaluation by the Pentagon’s Office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE). The Pentagon announced in July 2024 that with a revised acquisition strategy, the Sentinel could cost $140.9 billion.