Recent Developments in Cambodian Geopolitics
In PHNOM PENH, Cambodia, the recent docking of a U.S. warship at the Ream Naval Base, which was developed by China, has raised concerns about Beijing’s potential reaction. This event marks a significant moment especially after a period of chilly relations between Cambodia and the United States, which lasted nearly a decade and negatively impacted Southeast Asia. During this time, Cambodia drifted closer to China, engaging deeply with its economic and political initiatives.
The arrival of the USS Cincinnati signifies a possible thaw in the frosty diplomatic ties with the U.S., but experts like Deth Sok Udom, a professor at Paragon International University, suggest that this should not be seen as Cambodia pivoting away from China. “China will likely be quietly concerned about the intentions behind this move by Cambodia, though they may not express this openly,” Udom explained.
Thai analyst Pravit Rojanaphruk has expressed that Cambodia’s decision to host the USS Cincinnati might be perceived as overstepping by China, which could lead to diplomatic or even military pushback, considering China’s view of Southeast Asia as within its sphere of influence.
Experts anticipate that China will take steps to counteract the influence of the U.S. in Cambodia and potentially set an example to deter similar actions by other nations within its sphere, such as Laos.
The Naval Base
China has significantly upgraded the Ream Naval Base, completing a comprehensive rebuild within three years. By early 2025, the base featured a 650-meter pier capable of docking large warships, a 5,000-tonne dry dock, and a 1,000-tonne slipway, along with extensive logistical support facilities. Satellite images have shown that the new deep-water pier at Ream bears a striking resemblance to a Chinese military pier in Djibouti, hinting at the strategic importance China places on this location.
The base now spans 190 acres with additional infrastructure developments including highways and an upgraded airport, enhancing its strategic value. According to Craig Singleton from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, China’s investment in the Ream base significantly boosts its ability to project military power into the Indian Ocean, cementing Cambodia’s role as a key ally within ASEAN.
Alliances and Proxies
Since 2012, Cambodia has played a pivotal role as China’s influence within ASEAN, often delaying progress on the Code of Conduct, which aims to manage the maritime disputes in the South China Sea. These actions align with China’s preference for handling disputes bilaterally, undermining collective ASEAN approaches and broader strategic interests of the U.S. in the region.
Relations between the U.S. and Cambodia have been tumultuous, marked by a series of diplomatic confrontations and military disengagements. This was particularly evident when Cambodia ceased joint military exercises with the U.S. and later accused the Obama administration of supporting opposition efforts to overthrow Prime Minister Hun Sen.
The situation escalated when Cambodia was seen as aligning too closely with China, raising concerns even within its own leadership, notably with Hun Manet, who has educational ties to the West and was poised to succeed his father as Prime Minister in 2023.
Balancing Act
To counter perceptions of Ream being exclusively a Chinese base, Cambodia has allowed naval vessels from other nations, including Japan, Vietnam, Russia, Australia, and Canada, to dock at its ports. Yet, analysts like Jennifer Parker note that China continues to enjoy preferential treatment at Ream due to its substantial investments and support.
While China focused on enhancing the naval base, its influence in Cambodia faced challenges from other quarters, including the rise of Chinese criminal syndicates in Sihanoukville, which led to significant tension and a reduction in Chinese funding in 2024. This issue escalated into a broader conflict requiring international mediation.
In the wake of these events, ASEAN has taken a firmer stance, resolving to proceed with the Code of Conduct and rejecting the legitimacy of Chinese-backed maneuvers in Myanmar. These developments, coupled with the U.S. lifting its arms embargo and resuming military exercises with Cambodia, suggest a potential shift in Cambodia’s international alignment.
Altered Course
The recent visit by the USS Cincinnati has underscored that the Ream Naval Base is not solely a Chinese outpost and remains open to international naval engagements. This move, according to analysts, is indicative of Cambodia’s attempt to recalibrate its foreign policy and introduce a more balanced approach, though cautiously.
Experts like Gavin Greenwood from A2 Global Risk have pointed out that the presence of the USS Cincinnati, despite its checkered reputation, serves as a low-cost strategy for the U.S. to assert its influence and resolve in the region, signaling a potential shift in the dynamics of U.S.-Cambodian relations and broader regional geopolitics.
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Jamal Peterson reports on defense, aerospace, and tech policy. With a military background and a strategic mind, he dissects complex subjects with clarity, offering readers sharp, reliable insights.
