Estonian Intelligence Confirms: Europe’s United Defense Strategy is Effective

MILAN — According to a recent report by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia is unlikely to launch an attack on any NATO countries within the next two years. This projection is partly due to the rapid enhancement of military defenses by European nations in recent times.

The report also indicates that Russia’s military restructuring, including increased focus on drone technology and a boost in ammunition production, suggests preparations for potential extensive future conflicts.

The yearly analysis points out that, although there is no immediate cause for alarm, Russia is actively expanding its military capacity in response to the strengthening of European security measures.

“Russia does not plan to engage militarily with Estonia or any other NATO member in 2026 – and it’s likely this assessment will remain unchanged next year. This is because both Tallinn and broader Europe have acted decisively, forcing the Kremlin to carefully weigh its options,” stated the report.

The intelligence update from Estonia presents a less dire view compared to the more urgent warnings from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other European officials in 2025 about the potential for a Russian offensive.

Despite economic sanctions, Russia’s military-industrial sector has seen substantial growth, notes the Estonian document. From 2021, the production of artillery ammunition has escalated dramatically, multiplying from 400,000 to seven million units including shells, mortar rounds, and rockets.

In 2025 alone, Russian factories produced approximately 3.4 million artillery shells, 800,000 tank and infantry vehicle rounds, 2.3 million mortar rounds, and 500,000 rockets for multiple-launch systems.

The cost for these procurements was about 1 trillion rubles (approximately $12.6 billion) last year, which is relatively low compared to similar production costs in the West. “For instance, an older model of a 152mm shell is procured at about €1,050 ($1,300), which is considerably cheaper than the Western equivalent 155mm rounds,” the report highlighted.

Furthermore, since 2023, Russia has acquired up to 7 million shells from allied sources like Iran and North Korea.

The Rise of Drone Warfare

The Estonian intelligence report emphasizes the shift in Russian military tactics towards extensive use of unmanned systems. The integration of drone technology across all branches of the military signals a move towards deploying these systems in aerial, naval, and ground operations.

“In any potential conflict scenario, it is crucial for the state to be ready to counter an adversary equipped with a vast array of unmanned systems operating on multiple fronts and domains,” the report advises.

Estonian analysts have pointed out the formation of specialized Russian naval units equipped with surface strike drones, which are expected to be operational across all Russian fleets, including the Baltic and Caspian flotillas.

The report concludes that these unmanned naval strike vehicle units will enhance Russia’s capabilities in intelligence gathering, naval strikes, indirect fire, and precision strikes near Estonia.

In response, Estonia is advancing its unmanned system capabilities and plans significant integration of these technologies into its defense forces in the coming years.

Recently, Estonia announced a significant investment in drone technology, with the NIB bank financing an €11.4 million loan to establish a new drone technology unit within the Applied Research Centre in Tallinn.

This new department will focus on testing and manufacturing drones for air, land, and naval applications.