Insights from Iran Conflict: Russia’s Potential Strategy Against Lithuania
In Warsaw, Poland, a recent study builds on experiences from the conflict in Iran to illustrate how Russia could potentially bring Lithuania to surrender within 90 days without deploying ground troops. This analysis was conducted by the Baltic Defense Initiative, a modestly sized think tank located in Vilnius. The study highlights critical weaknesses in Lithuania’s defense strategies, aiming to address and fortify these gaps promptly.
Future Projections and European Political Dynamics
Looking nearly two years ahead, the analysis envisions a scenario where the rise of right-wing, anti-European Union movements across Europe, combined with the extended repercussions of a prolonged war in Iran that burdens the United States, could reshape security dynamics. According to the scenario depicted, “In December 2027, Marine Le Pen, as the French president, decides to retract the nuclear defense commitments France has with NATO allies, undermining the nuclear cooperation between France and the United Kingdom,” the study outlines.
The narrative continues, “The U.S., after being engaged in the Iran conflict for 18 months, finds its military resources severely depleted. At this juncture, at 11 a.m., Russia initiates a severe assault on Lithuania’s governmental structures using hypersonic missiles. This is swiftly followed by an overwhelming deployment of over 170,000 Shahed drones over a span of 60 days, devastating Vilnius by destroying vital infrastructure including bridges, power plants, hospitals, and water treatment facilities.”
The think tank clarifies that their scenario is constructed using actual data on weapon system capabilities, production rates of military equipment like drones, and observable global political trends.
Russia’s Ultimatum and the Response of Baltic Nations
On the 90th day of the conflict, according to the scenario, Moscow would present an ultimatum demanding that all three Baltic states submit to Russian control, with threats to target Riga and Tallinn next if they refuse, the report from the Baltic Defense Initiative reveals.
While opinions vary significantly regarding Russia’s likelihood of attacking NATO-member Baltic states, it is evident that Eastern European countries have significantly increased their defense budgets in recent years to strengthen their military capabilities against potential threats.
In a report released earlier this year, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service assessed that Russia is unlikely to attack any NATO members within the next two years, a statement that reflects the rapid enhancement of military defenses by European nations in response to growing threats.
Constitutional Vulnerabilities in Lithuania
Thiebaut Devergranne, founder of the Baltic Defense Initiative and former official at the French General Secretariat for Defense and National Security, pointed out a critical oversight in the Lithuanian constitution related to the line of succession in government leadership. He noted that the constitution does not provide a clear succession plan should the speaker of the Seimas, Lithuania’s unicameral parliament, be incapacitated. This could lead to ambiguity over who should assume the role of commander-in-chief, potentially creating a crisis in leadership during emergencies.
“This is an area that needs immediate attention,” Devergranne emphasized in a communication.
The Baltic Defense Initiative has proposed over 200 defense-oriented suggestions for Lithuania, drawing inspiration from France’s post-World War II model of asserting national sovereignty through military strength, the researcher mentioned.
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Jamal Peterson reports on defense, aerospace, and tech policy. With a military background and a strategic mind, he dissects complex subjects with clarity, offering readers sharp, reliable insights.
