Russia’s ‘Zapad’ Drill Sparks Fear in Europe: Concerns Rise Over Stealth Attacks

WARSAW, Poland — As Russia and Belarus commence the “Zapad 2025” military exercises this month, focusing on increasing their military presence along the eastern borders of NATO and actively simulating assaults on Poland and the Baltic nations, the four Eastern European countries are preparing their own military responses anticipating potential low-scale attacks on their infrastructures.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are set to orchestrate joint military exercises involving approximately 40,000 troops to counter the “Zapad 2025.”

The upcoming iteration of these exercises is planned for September 12-16. The last “Zapad,” which translates to “West” in Russian, took place in September 2021 and was used by Russia to mobilize forces that later initiated the invasion of Ukraine in February of the subsequent year.

Typically held biennially, the joint exercise was not conducted in 2023 as Russia faced difficulties in mobilizing troops and equipment due to its ongoing military actions in Ukraine. Despite being engaged in the conflict, Russia plans to include nuclear capabilities and domestically produced hypersonic missiles in “Zapad 2025.”

In Lithuania, which borders both Belarus and Russia, the planned exercises have triggered a state of heightened security, as reported by the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence.

This year, it is anticipated that up to 30,000 troops will participate, with 6,000–8,000 stationed in Belarus and several thousand more in Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. Despite speculations of larger troop numbers, Lithuanian intelligence has found no evidence to support such claims.

The Lithuanian military, in cooperation with NATO allies, is vigilantly monitoring the situation and stands ready to act if needed,” the ministry stated. “Lithuania will simultaneously conduct its own exercises with support from allies to safeguard national security.”

Gen. Raimundas Vaikšnoras, Lithuania’s chief of defense, has announced that during “Zapad 2025,” the three Baltic States will collaborate with Poland to organize a large-scale exercise involving around 40,000 troops from the allied countries.

“The Lithuanian contingent, without delving into exact numbers, will include about 10,000 troops, with an additional 6,000 from our allies, covering operations not just on land, but also at sea and in the air,” Vaikšnoras disclosed in an interview with local broadcaster LRT.

He further added that, “based on current plans, the combined forces of the Baltic states and Poland will surpass the visible capabilities of ‘Zapad 2025’ as detected through our reconnaissance efforts.”

Poland, which is the largest ally in the region and shares borders with Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad, is coordinating closely with NATO partners to monitor the upcoming drills and is also engaging through the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), as per the Polish Ministry of National Defence.

“The ‘Zapad 2025’ exercises underscore the escalating aggressive stance and deepening military collaboration between Russia and Belarus, especially in the context of the ongoing conflict with Ukraine,” a spokesperson for the Polish ministry commented to Defense News.

The spokesperson from the Polish ministry also noted the increased likelihood of provocations from Moscow and Minsk during the exercises, which may include cyberattacks, GPS jamming, and small-scale military incidents aimed at testing Poland’s response capabilities.

Last month, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin informed the state’s official press agency BelTA that the upcoming drills will include operations involving nuclear arms and the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, which is currently being used by the Russian military in Ukraine.

“Certainly, as part of the ‘Zapad’ exercise, we will collaborate with our Russian counterparts to practice the deployment of these weapons,” Khrenin stated.

Following Belarus’s increased military involvement in the conflict with Ukraine, Belarusian leader Aleksander Lukashenko announced in August 2022 that Russia had upgraded Belarusian fighter jets to carry tactical nuclear weapons. Additionally, Moscow has consented to transfer Iskander-M tactical missile systems to Minsk, capable of launching both ballistic and cruise missiles in conventional and nuclear formats.

“Poland’s Armed Forces remain vigilant and are continuously monitoring all military activities by neighboring countries, prepared to respond effectively to any potential security threats,” the Polish ministry spokesperson concluded.