Nigel Farage’s New Strategy: How Labour Can Reconnect with Local Communities

Think the recent elections were tumultuous? Brace yourself for the upcoming local elections next May, which could spell even more trouble for Labour unless they take swift action. Amidst internal debates about ideological direction—left or right—Labour must prepare for the challenges ahead. They face threats from Reform UK in places like Barnsley, while their strongholds in progressive cities could suffer losses to the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and various independent candidates, including those supporting pro-Palestine stances. Surprises may also arise in traditionally Labour-dominated London boroughs. (It’s worth noting that during a general election landslide for Labour, Keir Starmer’s share of votes in Holborn and St Pancras fell by 17% when faced with a radical pro-wealth tax opponent.) With a third of council seats up for grabs in English cities, expect a surge of local left-leaning movements.

Starmer’s advisors might be underestimating the real threat. Losing votes to the Lib Dems and Greens in a general election could cost Labour twice as many seats compared to losses to Reform. Research by Persuasion UK suggests that while 123 seats might switch to Reform, as many as 250 could be lost to more progressive parties. Although 11% of Labour supporters are open to Reform, a significant 29% and 41% are considering the Greens and Lib Dems, respectively.

The government’s focus on managing small boat arrivals isn’t misplaced, as lax border control can reflect poorly on governmental competence. However, attempting to outpace Nigel Farage in securing Reform votes is likely futile, as any Labour efforts will be easily overshadowed. The upcoming immigration white paper, which reportedly plans to restrict foreign students, could inadvertently harm the £40 billion educational sector, impacting cash-strapped universities. This move wouldn’t address the immigration concerns truly driving Reform’s base. In Runcorn, for instance, the local issue is the housing of asylum seekers, not foreign students, who generally garner 61% public support. Most foreign students leave after their studies; restricting them to lower immigration figures won’t appease Reform supporters and could prove disastrous in Labour’s urban strongholds, where universities support around three-quarters of a million jobs.

This shift could lead to a retreat from localism and devolution. Labour might regret initiating a substantial local government restructure, unmentioned in their manifesto, that could backfire significantly. The merging of numerous district councils into larger unitaries, often with substantial Tory/Reform-leaning populations, may result in the elimination of many Labour or Liberal Democrat councils in cities like Reading, Brighton, Oxford, Cambridge, Exeter, and Ipswich. With these unitaries headed by mayors, Labour analysts are concerned that no mayor from the Midlands to the Channel will represent their party or the Lib Dems. Considering these mayors oversee housing, what will become of Labour’s promise to build 1.5 million new homes? Furthermore, the election of mayors and police and crime commissioners through a first-past-the-post system—shaped by the previous government—raises questions about why Labour hasn’t reinstated the original supplementary vote system, which requires a majority for election and encourages consideration of second preferences.

Why is this reorganisation happening with little public awareness? According to local government expert Prof Tony Travers, it’s a Treasury obsession with hypothetical efficiencies, despite no proof that unitaries save money. This overlooks the importance of local democracy, especially when the UK already has far fewer councils than France. Travers points out that this presents an accidental advantage for Reform, potentially allowing them to gain control of councils from Scotland to Milton Keynes. Consequently, the argument for electoral reform is becoming stronger daily.

Labour might hope that Reform will collapse under increased scrutiny, as Hope Not Hate has exposed members within the party who harbor Islamophobic views and support extremist figures like Tommy Robinson. However, if Reform gains control of councils, they could struggle with the challenging legacy of widespread financial deficits—English councils are currently £4.6 billion in the red. Farage’s promise to deploy teams to cut wasteful spending is unlikely to find sufficient savings to manage escalating social care and special education costs. Like the Scottish National Party, Farage might avoid taking responsibility for any shortcomings, instead blaming Westminster for local government failures.

Labour believes that focusing on “delivery” will be their path to redemption. Recent improvements, such as the reduction in NHS waiting times over the past six months, are beginning to make an impact. However, key growth initiatives like renewable energy and new towns will take time to demonstrate tangible results, leaving them politically distant and unlikely to influence next year’s elections.

What steps can the Starmer government take to demonstrate they truly understand public concerns? MPs returning from local election campaigns argue for the reversal of means-tested winter fuel allowances and benefit cuts, which have marred the public perception of the Starmer/Reeves leadership. This could be financed by targeting wealthier individuals.

Public perception of services is influenced by what they see locally: antisocial behavior, graffiti, fly-tipping, potholes, homelessness, declining high streets, closed libraries, lost sports facilities, neglected parks, and poorly maintained public buildings. According to Travers, addressing these issues could be quickly achieved with relatively minor expenditure. The Labour government of 1997 rapidly moved the homeless off the streets, a change that was both immediate and highly visible. Travers suggests employing offenders in community service for clean-up tasks. Additionally, allowing the 38,000 asylum seekers currently housed in hotels and barred from working to participate in these initiatives could clarify the government’s commitment to local issues.

Labour must also overcome its fear of Farage: in an era marked by political frustration and division, Reform depends heavily on the charisma of Farage, who remains less popular than the prime minister, with only 27% viewing him favorably compared to a 65% unfavorable rating, according to YouGov. This is not the time for hesitation or compromise—it is a moment for bold confrontation with the reactionary right, reinforcing the values of social democracy and progressive liberalism. As seen in Canada and Australia, it’s crucial to stand firm against figures like Donald Trump and his followers, including Farage, especially in light of Trump’s recent attack on the vital film industry. After the electoral setbacks last week, preventing a more severe defeat next May requires immediate and decisive action.

• Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist