The Evolution of Baseball and Defense Wargaming: A Blend of Old and New
Two decades ago, the world of professional baseball witnessed a significant transformation. Long-standing baseball scouts, with their rich history of personal expertise, found themselves at a crossroads with data scientists who introduced innovative technologies and analytical methods to player evaluation. This sparked intense discussions about the superiority of human intuition versus analytical data. Today, it is clear that neither side has eclipsed the other; instead, the most successful baseball organizations integrate both human insight and statistical data for a holistic approach to scouting talent.
Presently, a similar evolution is unfolding in the realm of defense wargaming. Veteran wargamers, who have traditionally relied on their extensive experience and custom-designed games, are now confronting the rapid advancements in modeling, simulation, and artificial intelligence.
Incorporating New Technologies at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory
At the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, our team has been navigating this shift by integrating generative AI and advanced simulation models into our defense wargaming processes. The outcome? We believe there is no need for a decades-long debate similar to that in baseball. The future of wargaming will likely involve a synergistic blend of these technologies alongside human expertise.
To fully appreciate the current “Moneyball” moment in wargaming, one must first understand the intrinsic value of traditional wargaming. At its core, wargaming revolves around human decision-making. The power of wargaming lies in its capacity to simulate real-life experiences, teaching participants to navigate the complexities of war where perfect information is a fallacy. It provides insights into decision-making in imperfect conditions and observes how these decisions influence human responses.
Decades of research by psychologists aimed at deciphering human decision-making processes have shown that it’s a complex field that resists simplification into mere numbers or formulas. Moreover, it thrives on direct interaction, such as discussions and debates, which technology has not yet fully replicated.
Wargames are crucial for probing these decision-making processes. They allow players to examine their choices and the consequences of these choices. However, the traditional human-centric approach to wargaming is not without its inefficiencies. Preparing for a wargame can take months, requiring a deep understanding of defense strategies and the participation of experts who can realistically portray different factions in a conflict. This typically limits the frequency and diversity of scenarios that can be explored in wargames, often to an annual event that covers only a handful of potential situations a national security leader might face.
But with the introduction of generative AI, we now possess the capability to let computers mimic human language and decision-making processes to a convincing extent. This technology allows us to merge digital tools with traditional wargaming methods, thereby expanding the reach and scope of these simulations significantly.
When combined with physics-based modeling and simulation, which can accurately predict interactions between military assets (like whether an F-35 jet would be detected), wargames can be conducted with fewer human players over a broader range of scenarios. The digital recording of these games facilitates quick and detailed analysis of the events and decisions, a process that is typically labor-intensive with conventional wargaming.
While there are valid concerns regarding the overestimation of AI’s capabilities, its current applications in wargaming are proving invaluable. Our team utilizes AI and simulation technologies to quickly develop new scenarios that involve both AI and human participants, allowing us to explore various outcomes of a conflict extensively.
The AI participants are not perfect, but their integration allows for rapid iterations of wargames. This capability to quickly replay and analyze different strategies provides a broad view of potential outcomes, which is invaluable for military planning. When scenarios critical to national security arise, traditional wargaming excels by enabling in-depth discussions among decision-makers, thereby applying human judgment to vital issues.
The future of wargaming is not about choosing between traditional methods and technological advancements but rather about integrating these approaches to enhance strategic planning and decision-making, much like the ongoing evolution in professional baseball. The debate over the best approach doesn’t need to span decades to see that collaboration is the optimal path forward.
Andrew Mara heads the National Security Analysis Department at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), where he oversees analytics on vital national security challenges. Kelly Diaz leads the Advanced Concepts and Capabilities program at APL, focusing on innovative, data-driven solutions for complex security issues. Kevin Mather manages a team at APL that develops advanced modeling and simulation tools, including the integration of AI techniques, to support intricate national security analyses and decisions.
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Jamal Peterson reports on defense, aerospace, and tech policy. With a military background and a strategic mind, he dissects complex subjects with clarity, offering readers sharp, reliable insights.
